Alex Garland's Civil War is an incredible feat of cinematic accomplishment, offering an unnervingly realistic insight into the possible massive conflict that could envelop the real United States of America and how the society at large, seen through a photo lens of a journalist, tries to document and make sense of it. Everything Garland learned in films like Annihilation and Ex Machina is in this film, but there is so much more. At the same time, its depiction of the balance of power at the end of the war (or its first phase anyway) can be somewhat confusing. So, here's the chronological breakdown of the same timeline as far as I understand it - heavy spoilers ahead!
The film's premise begins somewhere in the present period - all of the technology shown in the film, including armaments, is contemporary and there's no hint that the plot is set even 10 or 20 years in the future. Instead, the film takes place in the form of a slightly alternative political reality, but with massive and horrific implications.
In that timeline, Nick Offerman's US President takes on his third term, somehow overriding the US Constitution. After that, he disbands the FBI, likely forcing additional police state rules on the citizens. This results in some form of citizen uprisings, but which, thanks to the US accessibility of weapons, turn deadly in no time at all. Here is where the tyrannical President authorizes the military to engage the uprisings with direct force, including very indiscriminate aerial bombings. This means that the Posse Comitatus Act - which bans federal troops from any kind of law enforcement activities - is no longer active. The US dollar implodes into inflation, becoming near-worthless and Washington D.C. becomes a fortified island of an ever-shrinking old USA. Uprisings turn into open warfare.
Here, the civil war commences, but it still has a political dimension. The central and eastern US remain loyal to the President and others succeed instead of trying to bring down the regime from within a unified country. That includes three major new powers. Western Forces, made up of California and Texas, were now united despite their previous huge political differences. The New People's Army controls the Northwestern states, while the Florida Alliance is mainly focused on the Southeast region.
The Loyalist forces quickly begin to lose ground and initiative. The tide of war turns against the President mercilessly and without any chances for a reversal of fortunes. The start of the film’s plot showcases the moment when all three sessions factions flood into the central Loyalist states with the simple aim of killing the President. The suicide bombing at the start of the film shows that even states like New York, still loyal formally to the President, see him as a dictator who does not represent the actual USA.
The main characters too believe that the President is as good as dead. Over the course of the film, both Western Forces and Florida Alliance troops (which are present in the sequence where a squad of Hawaiian shirt-wearing soldiers kills a group of loyalist soldiers) slowly saturate the approaches to the D.C. area, facing little formal or well-organized resistance. At the same time, at least the Western Forces are equipped with serious logistics and armaments, including tanks and gunships. They could be the saviors of the USA, but clearly, the same faction doesn’t want anything like that. Instead, they are fighting for their own, new country.
The Battle for D.C. doesn’t change anything, apart from bringing more death to all included. In the end, the US President lies dead at the hands of Western Forces and Washington D.C. is now no-man's land. However, his killers are not there to liberate the USA of its tyrant. Instead, they’re simply fighting their enemy to the death. That means that the winning sides are just that - several sides, where no one wants to reestablish the old country. Western Forces already have their flag with only two stars. As the character Stephen McKinley Henderson notes, with the death of the common enemy, these sides will likely turn on each other.
Throughout the film as well, many instances, like the sniper battle on the winter fairground, imply that the process of everyone fighting everyone else has already begun. The mass grave scene underlines this with an additional dose of ethnic hatred that is now free to define new parties of the old US however anyone likes, echoing real-world horrors like those of the breakup of former Yugoslavia. Here as well, the blank term “Americans”, just like the term “Yugoslav” in 1993, for example, no longer means anything.
That’s the final concept of the film. The brutal end of a clearly tyrannical President didn’t solve anything. In essence, the situation is similar to the moment Muammar Gaddafi was killed in Libya or Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The boogeyman might be dead, but the nightmare doesn’t just end, it even intensifies. In the film, each of the winning sides now has a lot of territory from the former Loyalist states that are right there for the taking. But, their borders and intentions are unclear and all are heavily armed - including the “neutral” civilians and many micro-factions that will only come about.
That is why the end of the Civil War film is not the end of the same fictional conflict. Instead, the state of war where some individuals (usually living on farms as the main character notes) could pretend is not happening will now engulf all of its participants. In the next phase of the civil war, there will be no quiet little towns and safe, isolated farms. They will all be swept into a Lebanon-like, all-against-all war status and with it, the last step of the complete destruction of the USA.
